Ranking each nation's chances of winning Euro 2024

24th Albania

It's rotten luck for Albania to be handed a group with Italy, Spain and Croatia, three of the firm favourites to win the whole competition. They're a better side than a few other teams at this tournament - as they showed when topping their qualifying group containing Czechia and Poland - but to merely get out of their group would be a seismic upset, let alone getting to the latter stages. This is one where they should just enjoy the ride.

23rd Georgia

Qualifying for their first ever major tournament through the Nations League backdoor, it's an exceptional achievement for the Georgians to merely be at Euro 2024. They only accumulated 8 points from 8 qualifying games, 6 coming against lowly Cyprus, while their other two points came when they had home advantage over Scotland and Norway. Even with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, it's tough to see them making it past the group stage this summer, even if the draw was somewhat favourable.

22nd Slovenia

Slovenia are a tough team to predict. In March, after a disappointing 2-2 draw against Malta, they masterminded an impressive 2-0 win over Portugal just days later, which made people sit up and pay attention. Still, a slender win over Armenia and a draw against lowly Bulgaria in the buildup to the tournament doesn't suggest they're a side that can threaten many of the big hitters in Europe, and they may struggle in a group containing England, Serbia and Denmark. Getting to the round of 16 would be a big success in the eyes of neutrals.

21st Scotland

Scotland have been in poor form since confirming their place in the European Championship. One win in their last 7 - which came against Gibraltar - is not ideal preparation for the continent's signature event. Defeat to Northern Ireland in March followed a crushing 4-0 loss to the Netherlands, while their closing preparatory game was a 2-2 draw with Finland. They harbour ambitions of making a run in this competition - and a reasonably balanced group gives them a chance - but it's very difficult to see them making a serious threat in clinching the trophy.

20th Romania

Romania find themselves with every chance of at least reaching the round of 16, placed in a remarkably balanced group alongside Ukraine, Slovakia and heavy favourites Belgium. Someone has to finish bottom though, and despite a hugely impressive qualifying campaign, in which they went unbeaten and finished 1st above Switzerland, their form heading into the tournament has been hugely disappointing. A draw against Northern Ireland was followed by a home defeat at the hands of Colombia, while their two more recent friendlies both ended in draws - first against Bulgaria, and then a shock 0-0 tie at home with minnows Liechtenstein. Defensively they look really solid, but they are limited in attack. Romania are not well placed to pull off an upset.

19th Slovakia

Slovakia were a pot 5 team in the Euros qualifiers, which saw them ranked in the same breath as the likes of Gibraltar, Lithuania and Malta. The fact they are at this tournament at all is therefore impressive, even if they did rely heavily on getting handed a shockingly favourable draw, pitted against Portugal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein. Nevertheless, they qualified with some ease, and will be equally happy with the draw for the tournament proper, set to face Belgium, Romania and Ukraine. Progression to the round of 16 is very attainable, perhaps even one further, but to win the whole thing is way out of reach.

18th Poland

Poland have been exceptional since the end of their disastrous qualifying campaign came to an end, in which they finished just a point above Moldova. Since then, they've gotten the better of Estonia and Wales in the playoffs, and beaten Ukraine and Türkiye in more recent friendlies. As such, they will feel that they have what it takes to cause an upset. Indeed, Poland would be higher on this list, but in a group with heavyweights France and Netherlands, as well as the resurgent Austria, they would do well just to get out of the group, let alone win it all.

17th Czechia

No question Czechia are going into the Euros in good form. Fives victories in a row indicates perfect preparation - but when you consider they faced North Macedonia, Malta, Armenia, Norway and Moldova in doing so, it becomes rather less impressive. Their last proper test came against Poland when they drew 1-1 in the qualifiers, while before that they were smashed 3-0 by Albania, having to settle for 2nd place in their qualifying group in the process. Tough to know what to expect, but they are highly unlikely to be causing too many upsets.

16th Türkiye

They have more talent than a few teams considered more likely to win it all, but they are in truly abysmal form heading into this tournament. They've failed to win any of their last six matches, losing to Hungary and Poland and suffering a 6-1 annihilation at the hands of Austria. A Türkiye triumph at Euro 2024 would be a big upset. But a favourable group does give them a chance of getting to the knockouts, and from there, anything can happen for a team as unpredictable as Türkiye.

15th Ukraine

It is remarkable what Ukraine continue to achieve on the footballing stage despite all the difficulties back home. Very few would feel aggrieved if Ukraine went all the way, and they are perhaps the first on this list with at least an inkling of a chance. Narrowly missing out on automatic qualification to the Euros - finishing 4 points behind England and level on points with Italy but with an inferior head to head record - they got the better of both Bosnia and Iceland in the playoffs, in dramatic late scenes on both games. Now they are here, they will fancy at least making the knockouts, and with some talented players and a record of making life uncomfortable for some of the bigger nations, their fairytale triumph is not an impossibility.

14th Switzerland

France's conquerors 3 years ago are maybe a little lower on this list than some would have expected. But their 6-1 implosion against Portugal at the World Cup still lingers, and the manner in which they dealt with their hugely favourable qualification group left a lot to be desired. Finishing below Romania and only 2 points above Israel after suffering draws at the hands of Kosovo - twice - and Belarus hardly gives confidence that this side are as good as the one that reached the quarter finals at Euro 2020, and in a group with both Germany and Hungary, it could be a complicated campaign for the Swiss.

13th Denmark

Another side that are difficult to predict. Denmark tanked badly at the last World Cup having gone into the competition as many people's dark horses to make a deep run into the quarters - and beyond. Their limp group stage exit left a lot of scars, and the recovery was not immediately evident. They qualified to this European Championship level on points with Slovenia, edging out Finland and Kazakhstan. It was hardly a difficult draw all in all but, while they got the job done in the end, it was hardly convincing, their implosion in a 3-2 loss to Kazakhstan and their narrow 2-1 win over San Marino perhaps the particular low points.

12th Serbia

As has often been the case over the last decade, Serbia go into this competition with a lot of talent in their ranks and plenty of suggestions that they are the dark horses for the competition. They have never really lived up to that tag, but this year could be different. They'll be in a straight shootout with Denmark to guarantee progression out of their group, but will fancy their chances of progressing as one of the best 3rd place teams at worst. After that, they have everything they need to cause even the biggest nations plenty of problems.

11th Hungary

Genuine contenders in this competition, this settled Hungary side under the stewardship of longtime coach Marco Rossi have a habit of causing the big nations serious problems. Euro 2020 was a remarkable display in which they drew to both Germany and France and held Portugal until the closing 10 minutes of the game, while their Nations League heroics - finishing 2nd in a group containing Italy, Germany and England - has put them on the map as a serious side. Qualifying ahead of Serbia undefeated, Hungary go into this contest with a lot of ambition and optimism, and they could well mount a push into the latter stages of the competition.

10th Netherlands

Perhaps slightly lower on this list than expected, the Netherlands are probably the first nation in the article that have genuine ambitions of winning the competition, and that certainly isn't beyond the realms of possibility. Question marks remain over their manager, Ronald Koeman, and their lack of firepower up front. The absence of Frenkie de Jong in midfield could also be significant too, and in a tough group alongside France, Austria and Poland, a top 2 finish is far from guaranteed. They can win it, but there are sides that are better placed.

9th Austria

These are the real dark horses for the competition. Under Rangnick Austria have been incredible, the aforementioned 6-1 demolition of Türkiye earlier this year still fresh in the memory. They qualified for the Euros with each ease, finishing 9 points ahead of Sweden and just one behind Belgium, and have looked very difficult to beat since. They were unlucky to be handed a tough group alongside France, the Netherlands and Poland, so even getting out of the group is not a certainty, but if they continue in the same vein as they have done in recent months, they could certainly get a top 2 finish and look at advancing to the quarters with a favourable pairing in the round of 16. From there, anything can happen.

8th Italy

The defending champions are still reeling from their shock omission from the 2022 World Cup, in which it was lowly North Macedonia that provided their demise. They have bounced back, squeaking into the Euros ahead of Ukraine, but have not looked entirely convincing. With Spalletti still fresh into the job, it is not straightforward to predict just how good Italy will be, but with just one defeat in ten outings under the new boss, there is an element of optimism that Italy could put their World Cup ghost behind them.

7th Croatia

In the same group as Italy and Spain, Croatia couldn't have asked for a much harder task in their quest to win their first piece of silverware. Nevertheless, with as many as three teams able to qualify from each group, they should be able to get the job done and, from there, the prospect of winning it all is a serious possibility. They have proven an incredibly united side capable of defeating anyone, and despite age not being on the side of some of their best players, they possess enough quality to genuinely go all the way.

6th Belgium

This is no longer Belgium's golden generation. Their best opportunity to win a major tournament has been and gone. But that doesn't mean they don't still have an impressive squad with a good blend of youth and experience. Their squad is probably not the 6th best on the continent, but an incredibly favourable draw ensues advancing into the round of 16 should be a formality, and may allow for some rotation in preparation for the latter stages of the contest. This could be a powerful advantage, with other nations perhaps having to go full throttle throughout the group stage to secure as good a ranking as possible. With Lukaku a machine on the national scene, and de Bruyne a magician in the middle of the park, don't discount Belgium from winning it all.

5th Spain

Like Belgium, this is no longer prime Spain. Unlike Belgium, they won a lot with their golden generation, and that maybe takes the pressure off this much more youthful Spanish outfit, who for the large part know this is not going to be their last chance at winning something. Still respecting the Spanish ethos of playing football in a particular way, this side feels a little different, with more energy on the wings and a more flexible approach to building attacking opportunities. That versatility, added to their mic of youth and experience, makes them a real force.

4th Portugal

Portugal arguably have the most talented squad at this Euros, and lifting the trophy in July would be no surprise at all. Their qualification campaign was a walk in the park; 10 wins from 10 was a statement of intent, even if the group was relatively weak. But recent defeats to Slovenia and Croatia provided a much-needed wake-up call and proved that Portugal can be vulnerable. The semi-finals will be the aim, and there is an opportunity to go even further and become European champions once more. With their ridiculous firepower in the attacking areas of the pitch, the dream is alive.

3rd Germany

It is incredibly difficult to assess this German side. Hapless at the 2022 World Cup, they failed to improve under Flick and eventually had to part ways with the former Bayern Munich manager. In came the youthful Nagelsmann, and with it a breath of fresh air. There is optimism in Germany of a very good showing, and with home advantage, it wouldn't be any surprise at all to see them go all the way, which illustrates impressive progress over the last year or so.

2nd England

The bookies favourite - and understandably so. With every player in the squad playing either in the English Premier League - with exception to perhaps their two best players in Harry Kane (of Bayern Munich) and Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) - the talent in midfield and attack in Southgate’s side is scarcely believable. Like Portugal, qualification to the tournament was a breeze, although perhaps more impressive in England's case, pitted against both Italy and Ukraine and still navigating it pretty much unscathed. The recent warmup friendly defeat to Iceland was a blow, and their unimpressive defensive options is a clear weakness, but few can look last the 2020 finalists going one better this time around.

1st France

The only side that can really rival England - and perhaps Portugal - for pure strength in depth. Unsurprisingly, they are the pick to win the whole thing. They were humbled greatly at Euro 2020, eliminated by Switzerland in the round of 16, and having not won this competition in over two decades, will be determined to add this trophy to their cabinet. Little to separate them from the other major contenders, but a bench alone that would beat most nations ensures they have the manpower to get the job done this year.