Predicting how Euro 2024 will unfold
Football is rarely short of upsets - and the unpredictability of the Beuatiful Game is one of its major attractions. Here, we attempt the futile task of navigating how the competition may unfold, crowning who we believe will be the winners of Euro 2024.
GROUP A: Germany, Switzerland, Scotland, Hungary
An intriguing group that appears reasonably balanced. Hosts Germany will be expecting to advance, but have three potential banana-skins in Switzerland, Hungary and Scotland, each of which represents passionate footballing nations that are expecting to progress to the round of 16. At least one is to be left disappointed, and that makes this a hugely enthralling group to keep an eye on.
Scotland go into this one in dire form, and it is difficult to see them living up to their fan’s expectations when taking on European regulars Germany and Switzerland, while Hungary, under the shrewd stewardship of Marco Rossi, have proven their ability to compete with the biggest hitters on the continental stage. That they drew to both Germany and France in the Group of Death at Euro 2020 - and finished 2nd in a Nations League group containing Italy, Germany and England - shows they are not a side to be underestimated. The Swiss, however, have a raft of players plying their trade in the biggest leagues in Europe, and have the know-how to progress too.
PREDICTION: 1st Germany. 2nd Hungary. 3rd Switzerland. 4th Scotland.
GROUP B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania
While it was Hungary who drew the short-straw at Euro 2020, it is most certainly Albania who will be grimmacing at the strength of their group this time around. They know they are up against it and are the heavy underdogs though - and that can make them incredibly dangerous opponents. Spain, Croatia and Italy all know that a potential slip-up against their less-fancied counterparts could be disastrous, and all the pressure is on them.
Nevertheless, it is difficult to look beyond Albania’s opponents in this group. Reigning European champions Italy will be eager to make amends for their failure to even qualify for the World Cup two years ago and will be desperate to put on a show, while World Cup semi-finalists Croatia have proven consistent performers in the biggest international competitions and are virtual veterans at making deep runs in senior tournaments. Spain, meanwhile, are understandably one of the favourites to go all the way.
Such is the format of the tournament, all three can - and probably will - progress. The order in which they finish is less clear, but it’s tough to look beyond Spain for top spot.
PREDICTION: 1st Spain. 2nd Italy. 3rd Croatia. 4th Albania.
GROUP C: England, Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia
Another interesting group. England are favourites to win the competition - and understandably so. Boasting a wealth of talent in midfield and attack, they really should be making a deep run in this competition, and this group should not pose too many issues.
Denmark were hugely underwhelming at the 2022 World Cup, while Slovenia - despite defeating Portugal in a friendly only a matter of months ago - shouldn’t be much of a threat. Serbia possess many quality players, but they have also flattered to deceive at times.
England to top the group, with Denmark and Serbia set to battle it out for 2nd.
PREDICTION: 1st England. 2nd Serbia. 3rd Denmark. 4th Slovenia.
GROUP D: Austria, France, Netherlands, Poland
While Group B certainly gets the ‘Group of Death’ tag this year, Group D is another that has the potential to cause heavyweights France and the Netherlands serious problems. In fact, it’s very feasible that we could see a big upset in this one, with Austria looking resurgent and Poland the type of side that can be very uncomfortable to play against.
With France’s incredible quality, they should top the group, but a draw or two or at most only very narrow victories in each of their three group stage matches is something you can expect to see. Netherlands, meanwhile, could well find it very difficult to secure 2nd in this group, as Austria have proven a real unit.
PREDICTION: 1st France. 2nd Austria. 3rd Netherlands. 4th Poland.
GROUP E: Belgium, Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia
It must be said that, at least on paper, this is perhaps the weakest group in the competition. Despite their ageing squad and their disastrous showing in Qatar two years ago, Belgium must be incredibly confident of flying into the round of 16, pitted against three sides that failed to make the most recent World Cup altogether. This could be one of the few nine-pointers we see this year, with Belgium comfortable favourites in each of their group stage matches.
The battle for 2nd - and 3rd - will be very interesting. Slovakia, who were a pot 5 team going into Euro 2024 qualifiers, did incredibly well to even make it to the group stage, thanks in part to having been handed a pretty favourable qualifying group alongside Portugal. They’ve been handed an equally favourable group at the tournament proper though, and they may be thinking that the stars are aligning.
In terms of quality, it’s hard to look beyond Ukraine getting 2nd place in this one, but the Euros tends to throw up upsets, and this one is just too close to call, with Romania also firmly in the mix.
PREDICTION: 1st Belgium. 2nd Slovakia. 3rd Ukraine. 4th Romania
GROUP F: Portugal, Turkiye, Czechia, Georgia
Portugal will also be relatively pleased with the group they’ve been handed. Placed in Group F for the third European Championships in a row - offering the advantage of knowing exactly how many points are required to qualify as one of the best 3rd-ranked teams on the last day of the group phase - could be incredibly advantageous. Portugal, however, should be able to wrap this group up in their opening two fixtures.
Georgia, making their debut at a major international competition, will be delighted to have made it this far, but are not here just to make up the numbers, and could spring a surprise or two. It’s by no means guaranteed that they will lose all three of their group stage games.
It’s tough to look beyond this being a battle between Turkiye and Czechia for 2nd place in the group though. For the talent, Turkiye should have enough.
PREDICTION: 1st Portugal. 2nd Turkiye. 3rd Czechia. 4th Georgia.
THIRD PLACED TEAMS: Switzerland, Croatia, Netherlands, Denmark, Ukraine, Czechia
Were these predictions to actually prove correct, it would see some very reputable footballing nations in trouble of not even advancing past the group stage. Switzerland, Croatia, Netherlands and Denmark all likely harbour ambitions of making a deep run in this competition, and one or two may be left disappointed.
It’s difficult to see Czechia failing to advance; as a group F team, they will know exactly what is needed to be considered one of the best four 3rd place teams, so they could squeeze through. The opposite is true for Switzerland; as a Group A side, they would face a nervous wait to see if they have done enough to progress in 3rd place, and with other sides knowing what is necessary to beat their tally, they are at a real disadvantage. Croatia, meanwhile, should pick up enough points, with a victory over Albania expected. Netherlands and Denmark also get the nod.
PREDICTION: Croatia, Netherlands, Denmark and Czechia to progress.
ROUND OF 16:
Spain vs Czechia
Germany vs Serbia
Portugal vs Croatia
Austria vs Slovakia
Belgium vs Denmark
France vs Turkiye
England vs Netherlands
Hungary vs Italy
Should things unfold as predicted, there would be some interesting match-ups in the round of 16. None more so, perhaps, than Portugal against Croatia. A pre-tournament warm-up friendly only days before the tournament saw these two heavyweights take each other on - and it was Croatia who came out on top. When it comes to the tournament itself, though, Portugal should have enough - but it would be incredibly tense.
England vs Netherlands also looks incredibly intriguing, while Serbia and Turkiye could prove huge tests for Germany and France respectively too. Nevertheless, the latter two would likely advance alongside England, but it wouldn’t be a shock if extra time were required in at least one of those fixtures.
It’s tough to look beyond Spain getting the job done against Czechia, while Italy would probably have too much for Hungary. Austria vs Slovakia is probably not a match-up many people would envisage seeing in the round of 16, and it presents a huge opportunity for both sides to make a run to the quarters. Austria would be favourites in such a clash.
PREDICTION: Germany, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Denmark, France, England, Italy to progress
QUARTER FINALS:
Germany vs Spain
Portugal vs Austria
Denmark vs France
England vs Italy
Things begin to look extra spicy at the quarter finals. Germany vs Spain and England vs Italy - a repeat of the Euro 2020 final - are both mouth-watering prospects. Portugal would be pretty pleased to draw Austria in the quarters; though a talented squad, of all the names in the final eight, theirs is the one that would perhaps be most surprising. France, meanwhile, would surely have enough for Denmark.
That brings us back to the two big games. Home advantage may give Germany the edge against a youthful Spain outfit, while England may be able to get revenge against their Wembley conquerors this time around.
PREDICTION: Germany, Portugal, France, England to progress.
SEMI FINALS:
Germany vs Portugal
France vs England
That brings us to the predicted final four, and what a final four this would be. Such an eventuality would see the four of the five pre-tournament favourites make it, with only Spain the notable absentee.
Germany have a remarkable record against Portugal; even if they haven’t been at their best, it’s always difficult to see Portugal getting the better of them, and home advantage only further consolidates Germany as favourites in this battle. It would likely be much closer than previous meetings between the two sides, but Germany would still be viewed as the favourites to progress.
France vs England is a coin toss. Both boast perhaps the strongest squads in the entire tournament, and it’s another clash that is worhty of a final. France got the better of England two years ago in their run to the World Cup final - and it is maybe just about the more likely outcome here too. France will have a mission to win this competition, which has eluded them for over two decades, and so they would likely have just enough.
PREDICTION: Germany, France progress.
FINAL: GERMANY VS FRANCE
And so it comes down to this. A clash between the hosts and the back-to-back World Cup finalists. I don’t think a Germany victory would be too much of a shock to any observers, but France, with the firepower up front and the imperious defence at the other end of the pitch, have what it takes to manage this game and win another piece of silverware.
