Four teams separated by two points: An epic relegation battle emerging in Portugal

The relegation battle in the Portuguese Primeira Liga is hotting up as we get to the closing stages of the 2019-20 campaign.

While Aves have already gone down with a wimper, having only picked up 17 points from 32 games, the occupant of the final relegation spot in the Portuguese top flight remains too close to call as five teams attempt to avoid being the side to suffer relegation.

This is how the bottom end of the table looks as we approach the end of the season, with each side with just two games left to play:

Belenenses’ exceptional draw versus Braga could be huge in the context of their survival aspirations, giving them a two point advantage over the three sides below them. But they are still far from safe, with just one win from each of the teams from 15th to 17th all that it would take to see them fall into the drop zone.

Meanwhile, things are even more congested below them, with Tondela, Portimonense and Setubal all level on 30 points. And it is Tondela who currently occupy the second and final relegation spot, despite having a better goal difference than Setubal.

The reason for that is that, in Portugal, head-to-head record is deemed to be more important than goal difference - and Tondela’s head-to-head record is the worst between themselves, Portimonense and Setubal.

While Tondela only picked up 4 points against both Setubal and Portimonense, Portimonense picked up 5 points, and Setubal 6 points, hence why Setubal are currently 15th despite their poor goal difference, while Portimonense are 16th and Tondela 17th.

If, however, Tondela pulled away from the two other sides, and therefore only Portimonense and Setubal finished on the same points, it would be Setubal that would then drop into the relegation zone. That is because their head-to-head record is identical, having drawn 0-0 in Setubal and 0-0 at Portimonense, meaning that it would then come down to goal difference and, as you can see, Setubal are currently losing that battle with -18 compared to Portimonense’s -16. It shows how complicated deciphering who will drop into the relegation zone can get depending on who finishes on the same points - and how many sides do so.

For example, if Belenenses finish on the same points as Portimonense alone, they would finish above them, having beaten them once and drawn against them once this season. The same is true if they finished level on points with Tondela. Then, if all of Belenenses, Portimonense and Tondela finished on level terms, Tondela would finish ‘last’, Belenenses ‘first’. Belenenses therefore have a considerable head-to-head advantage in addition to their two-point advantage.

They do, however, still have to play Setubal on the very last day of the season - and therefore their full head-to-head record is unknown. In their only other meeting, Setubal ended up winning 0-1 away. Therefore, if they were the only two sides on the same points on the last day of the season and drew, Setubal would finish above Belenenses. It’s therefore a complex picture, and predicting who will go down is far from straightforward.

Who will go down?

But that won’t stop us from trying to predict who may well follow Aves into the second division. First things first, here are the remaining fixtures of each side:

Belenenses: Gil Vicente (h); Vitoria Setubal (a)

Setubal: Sporting CP (a); Belenenses (h)

Portimonense: Pacos Ferreira (a); Aves (h)

Tondela: Braga (h); Moreirense (a).

On paper, you would say Portimonense have by far the easiest run-in, facing a Pacos side that are all but safe from relegation, 5 points above the drop zone, and already-relegated Aves. They are also in extraordinary form, having picked up 14 points from their 8 games since the season resumed. By comparison, before the season was suspended, they picked up just 16 points from 24 matches and sat 6 points adrift of safety in the relegation zone. Their turnaround has been stunning, and constitutes one of the great escapes. If they got relegated now, it would undo all their incredible hard work.

Tondela, meanwhile, likely have the toughest run-in, having to face Braga and Moreirense, two sides that have proven they can cause any side challenges this campaign. Tondela are also in awful form, with 1 win in their last 12 matches, or 2 in their last 18. They were 7th in the table in gameweek 15, and have slid down the table ever since until they finally fell into the drop zone for the first time this week, in gameweek 32.

Tondela, however, since they were promoted to the top flight of Portuguese football for the first time 5 years ago, have never been relegated, and it would be unfortunate for them to see their impressive run come to an end now.

Setubal are in equally atrocious form though, having not won in 14 games! It’s a scarcely believable run, and has seen them drop down the table at a similarly alarming rate as Tondela. Setubal have also lost each of their last 6 games, including one against already-relegated Aves, showing just how bad they have been since the season restarted. If they fail to get anything against Sporting, which most would expect to be the case, that match against Belenenses on the last day of the season will be absolutely huge for both sides.

Here are each of the side’s form going into the next match, from the longest ago match to their most recent:

Belenenses: DDWDLLDLLD - 8 points from their last 10 games.

Setubal: DDDDLLLLLL - 4 points from their last 10 games.

Portimonense: DLWDDWWLLW - 15 points from their last 10 games.

Tondela: LDDWLLDLLL - 6 points from their last 10 games.

Portimonense goalkeeper Gonda. Photo author: Werner100359. License link.