Is Carlos Vinicius worth 100 million euros?
Benfica star striker Carlos Vinicius is a man in demand after a stellar debut season with the reigning Portuguese champions, and with a release clause of 100 million euros, it could take a substantial price tag to prise him away from Lisbon.
Previously, Benfica president Luis Filipe Vieira has insisted that Vinicius will not be going anywhere unless his monumental release clause is met, while just last week he commented that, had the Covid-19 pandemic not occurred, Benfica were set to sell two players this summer for a combined 200 million euros. He was almost certainly referring to the two biggest assets at the club in Carlos Vinicius and centreback Ruben Dias, who each boast a 100 million euro release clause. Now, however, a double sale of that magnitude is deemed nearly impossible.
The fact remains, though, that Benfica, despite the fact that their finances have taken a considerable hit due to the pandemic, are in no desperate need to sell, and they will still be hoping to hold out for as close to 100 million euros as possible, even if it is widely perceived that 60 million would be sufficient to bring Vinicius’ stay with Benfica to a premature end.
And there are plenty of clubs interested in his services. Manchester United are one such side, looking for a long-term clinical out-and-out striker to fill the boots of Romelu Lukaku, with Odion Ighalo currently only on loan with the club from Shanghai Shenhua until January. Meanwhile, Wolverhampton Wanderers are another outfit that have shown concrete interest in Vinicius in the past, attempting to sign the Brazilian striker from Napoli back in July for a fee of around 15 million euros, but failed in their efforts due to his failure to earn a work permit. That, now, is no longer an issue.
And then there was the high-profile story that an English club offered Benfica 60 million euros for his services back in January, which was subsequently rejected. The club itself remains unknown, though Luis Filipe Vieira did confirm the reports, while some media outlets in Portugal have stated that the club in question was Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Nevertheless, the main takeaway from that story is that, though Benfica were offered a gargantuan fee for a player that had only represented them for a matter of months, they would not budge from their stance that he is only available for his release clause, which shows just how highly the Lisbon club regard the 25-year old striker, and how they fully intended to hold out for 100 million euros for his services.
But that begs the question; is Carlos Vinicius really worth 100 million euros? For a player that fans outside of Portuguese football will not be too familiar with, it’s an extroardinary sum of money, and despite Joao Felix’s 120 million euro move to Atletico Madrid in the summer, many would scoff at the suggestion that Benfica could sell another player for a nine-digit sum.
Is he worth 100 million euros?
Before we take a look at what he offers on the pitch in terms of his style of play, let’s take a quick look at the statistics. Vinicius’ numbers this season are quite exceptional. A real poacher in the box, Vinicius has netted 16 goals in the league alone this campaign - and that’s come from 23 matches, of which only 15 were starts. And he’s chipped in with a further 6 assists in that time too, meaning that, on average, he’s directly contributed a league goal every 59 minutes this season, a startling return for a player that cost under 20 million euros in the summer.
His return across all competitions is equally impressive; 37 appearance, 21 goals, 11 assists. In other words, a goal or assist every 68 minutes. Again, a remarkable showing from the Brazilian forward, and a sign of just how vital he has been to Benfica’s season. Without question, he has been one of the greatest strikers in world football over the last year.
Of course, many will reference the fact that he ‘only’ plays in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, and those that are fans of the domestic game are not so delusional to think that the standard of the league is as high as the likes of the Premier League and La Liga. It isn’t, however, as poor as many make it out to be, while a good player is a good player regardless of the league in which they ply their trade. Take Bruno Fernandes as the perfect example; the Sporting star ‘only’ played in Portugal, but has since virtually single-handedly rejuvinated Manchester United in just a handful of games. So that argument doesn’t really stand.
And that brings us onto his style of play, perhaps the most crucial part that will dictate whether he can make the transition into a new league in the manner in which the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Ederson demonstrated. And as mentioned before, Vinicius is certainly something of a poacher. Those that have had the pleasure of watching the Brazilian this season will have seen that a large number of his goals this campaign have come from in and around the six yard box.
But that in itself is a skill that is the mark of a top-quality striker; it requires good movement and anticipation to get into threatening positions, and so often you will see Vinicius burst into life to peel away from his defender to get in and around the back post and six-yard box to latch onto threatening passes into him.
He’s a lot more than just your ordinary poacher, though. As an athletic centre forward, Vinicius’ physicality ensures he is a real handful for defenders, and this strength only makes him even more threatening in and around the opposition box, able to shrug off defenders and break into space. This also allows him to attempt to hold up the ball and link up with players around him, as seen by his assist versus Maritimo in Benfica’s 4-0 victory back in November 2019.
And if you are to watch just one match to observe what Vinicius is all about, that clash with Maritimo is perhaps the greatest possible example. He only played 70 minutes of that fixture - but in that time, he managed to contribute not only that assist, but an impressive hattrick too, which perfectly illustrates what a constant threat he was to the Maritimo backline. As he continued to try and get in between the centrebacks to try and create space for himself and the players around him, his attacking intelligence, poaching instincts and link-up play were all on show, in addition to his strength, tenacity and speed.
All three of his goals were typical poachers efforts, tapping home from in and around the six yard box for his first two, while for his third, he was the one to react quickest when the Maritimo keeper could only push Chiquinho’s powerful effort from the edge of the box back into the danger area.
He so easily could have added more goals to his game too, finding the back of the net on another occasion on the stroke of half time after sprinting off his last man in an attempt to beat the offside trap, before finishing in emphatic fashion low and hard to the keeper’s left. However, upon the VAR review, he was found to be offside by the slimmest of margins - 2.5cm to be precise - and was denied, at that point in the match, a deserved hattrick. That, however, illustrated another typical part of Vinicius’ game; not only a strong and dominant presence up front, Vinicius also loves playing on the last line of the defence, and uses his pace to break in behind.
He had other chances in the first half of that clash with Maritimo to add to his goal tally too, one coming from an exceptional bursting run from deep in his own half on the counter as he peeled off to the back post - as he so often does - before firing off target, while another came when he managed to get in between the centre halves, but he ended up dragging his shot wide. Fair to say the Maritimo defence simply did not know how to deal with him as pretty much all his desirable traits were on show.
His assist, as mentioned previously, was equally impressive, and not only illustrated his attacking intelligence, but also his physicality and link-up play. As he latched onto an early cross into the box, he brought down the ball with great composure, held off the defender with his back to goal, before laying it off to Pizzi, who was presented with the easiest of finishes.
Take this game in isolation, and it becomes clear that he is an all-round star striker. The exceptional thing about Vinicius, however, is the regularity in which he has managed to demonstrate his quality, with his movement across the opposition backline and attacking instincts, added to his first-time shooting ability and the power which he appears to generate, making him a fundamentally lethal finisher and an impressive all-round striker.
His start at Benfica was slow; he was clearly third in the pecking order behind fellow strikers Haris Seferovic and Raul de Tomas, but his impact off the bench was simply too good to ignore, and he forced Bruno Lage into starting him. Since then, he has never relinquished his grip as a starter for Benfica; and deservedly so.
So that’s the lengthy list of positives - but what are the negatives around Carlos Vinicius? Well, they’re few and far between, but one thing that could be held against him is his record with AS Monaco; after a truly sensational five month loan spell at Rio Ave in the 2018-19 season, Monaco, suitably impressed by his form, took over his loan deal for the second half of the season - but he made little to no impact. Two goals and two assists in 16 appearances for Monaco paints a very negative picture - though that does only tell part of the story. Though he did feature in 16 matches for Monaco that campaign, that actually only translated to 511 minutes; in other words, Vinicius actually ended up directly contributing to a goal every 128 minutes during his time in France. Contrary to what the initial stats would show, that’s indisputedly a rather impressive return.
Indeed, there were only two matches in which he played more than 45 minutes for Monaco, making it exceptionally difficult for Vinicius to make any sort of impact in France. His time at Monaco, therefore, should not really be taken into consideration when judging the quality that he possesses.
Perhaps the only other negative about Vinicius that you could pick out, if you were being exceptionally picky, is that he can be somewhat inconsistent. That sounds bizarre when you look at his numbers, averaging pretty much a goal or assist every game, though you have to bear in mind that Benfica are a side that will dominate practically every match they play in the Portuguese game, and therefore he is almost by definition going to have plenty of opportunities every time he steps out onto the pitch. And while in some games he is supremely clinical, other days it simply doesn’t work out for him.
That seems like an incredibly harsh criticism, as of course every striker in the world will have off days every now and again, though it is incredibly difficuly to think of any real negatives regarding Vinicius’ game. However, the fact that he was unable to translate his exceptional domestic form onto the continental stage in either of the Champions League or Europa League is an issue that can’t really be overlooked, and that is really what separates him and Joao Felix. While Felix had youth on his side, much more so than Vinicius, Felix was also able to demonstrate his quality in the Europa League too, scoring a sensational hattrick against Eintracht Frankfurt.
We therefore come to the major question: Is Carlos Vinicius really worth the 100 million euros that has previously been demanded? In today’s market, or, more accurately, the market pre-Covid-19, the money it takes to prise away the very best players has sky-rocketed, and strikers are particularly valuable. As one of the most clinical and in-form strikers in world football, added to the fact that age is still on his side, he is certainly one of the most valuable players in world football too. At the same time, however, can you really justify splashing out close to the fee paid for Joao Felix on a player that a) is substantially older, and b) has failed to prove himself on the European stage? For that, 100 million euros does seem excessive, even if he is close to being a world-class talent.
That said, has he been better for Benfica than, say, Raul Jimenez was? I think common consensus would say yes, he absolutely has, without a shadow of a doubt. Though Raul was an excellent player while on the books of Benfica, he only ever really served as a supersub, never managing to dislodge Jonas from the Benfica starting XI.
Jimenez, now, is valued at around 60 million pounds (not euros) by both Wolves and their fans - if not more than that. That translates to around 67.5 million euros. If Jimenez, who is four years older than Vinicius and failed to have as subtantial an impact at Benfica, is valued at over 65 million euros, then Vinicius simply has to be valued at a very similar level. It therefore goes without question that Vinicius is worth at the very least 65 million euros in the modern market - a sum which would make him the 2nd most expensive player ever bought from Benfica, only behind Joao Felix.
I would go one further, though, and say that he should be worth more than Jimenez, for all the reasons already mentioned, and therefore would put him at around 75 to 80 million euros in the modern market The only thing that would stop him from being valued even higher are those two things previously mentioned - that he isn’t as young as other top players, and that he hasn’t proven himself in European competition - in addition to the fact that he hasn’t yet proven himself in a more competitive domestic league, either. So around 75 million euros would be a good estimate of what he should be worth in today’s market, while a deal of around 60 million euros would have to represent something of a bargain for a player of his calibre.
