How significant will Diogo Jota's sale be to Wolves' chances of success this season?

The exit of Diogo Jota to reigning English champions Liverpool was a rapid and startling development that caught many off guard, and has garnered mixed reactions amongsts the Wolves fanbase.

While some fans believe that his exit should not impact the side’s quality too significantly, others feel that the departure of the former Porto forward is a massive blow to the team’s aspirations. But which viewpoint seems more likely? Will Wolves feel his absence, or will their other stellar options fill the void left behind? Here we look at the numbers behind Diogo Jota and attempt to assess the situation.

Wolves have lost a potent goalscoring winger

One thing that should be said about Diogo Jota is that, throughout his time at Wolverhampton Wanderers, he did go through spells of very strong goalscoring prowess, and was one of the more likely players to get on the scoresheet. Often he was the man that relieved some of the pressure from former Benfica striker Raul Jimenez in Wolves’ efforts to break deadlock.

While Daniel Podence, Pedro Neto and Adama Traore all offer great qualities, one thing that they so far haven’t managed to do in abundance is find the back of the net. A look at the number of goals the trio managed to find across the 2019-20 season while on the books of Wolves paints a clear picture.

Diogo Jota’s sixteen goals last season was a significant factor in Wolves’ Europa League run and their ability to secure 7th in the Premier League standings, while it was also more than the combined fifteen goals Adama Traore, Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence managed as a collective.

Jota also comfortably outscored Adama Traore despite featuring in significantly fewer matches overall - and though you may be forgiven for thinking that many of Traore’s appearances came as a substitute, the Spanish star actually ended up playing more minutes for Wolves across the 2019-20 campaign than Jota.

This is shown by the chart below which illustrates the average number of goals scored by each player per 90 minutes of action. Once again, none of the other three players come close to Jota’s impressive tally of 0.47.

It is therefore no surprise that Wolves have had some difficulties in finding the back of the net this season; indeed, though they have already picked up 13 points this campaign - a massive 6 more than they managed at this point last season - they have actually scored one fewer goal in the process, having managed to find 9 goals in their opening 7 league games last term.

You could see that as a significant positive - Wolves are able to pick up a large number of points without being particularly effective in front of goal - but just how sustainable could this lack of productivity in front of goal truly be?

Whether that is because of the loss of Diogo Jota is far from certain; a change in tactics, a lack of preparation for the new campaign and the absence of fans in stadiums are all amongst the other possible factors that could impact the side’s performance levels. But Jota may also be part of the reduction in goal efficiency.

Scoring for fun in Europe - but not so effective in the Premier League

What should also be pointed out, however, is that more than half of Diogo Jota’s goals actually came in the UEFA Europa League - with only 7 of his 16 goals in the 2019-20 campaign coming in the English Premier League.

His goalscoring record in the top flight of English football was therefore relatively average by comparison, and was actually overshadowed by that of Daniel Podence and Pedro Neto, as is shown in the chart below:

While Jota had an incredible goalscoring record across all competitions, in the league alone, Jota really did not stand out for Wolves at all, and Neto and Podence were more efficient with their goalscoring by comparison; while Jota scored an average of 0.27 goals per 90 minutes, Neto managed 0.29 goals per 90, and Podence netted 0.31 goals on average.

Goalscorer but not provider - Wolves should not lack creativity in Jota’s absence

Though a clear goalscorer for Wolves, it is fair to say that Diogo Jota was perhaps the least likely of Wolves’ attacking options to provide a goal for someone else last season - just 1 league assist, and a further 5 in Europa League qualifying, is perhaps testament to that.

The chart below illustrates that more clearly, with Jota providing significantly fewer assists per 90 minutes of football both in the league and across all competitions compared to Traore, Podence and Neto:

Has Jota’s productivity been improving over the years?

Earning a move to Liverpool was a clear sign of Jota’s qualities, and you may expect him to have been improving over the years to earn that transfer as a result. However, his average goals and assists per 90 minutes year on year could well tell a different story.

Across all competitions, Jota has been relatively consistent in terms of his contribution of goals and assists, with no clear positive or negative trajectory. The 2019-20 season was his best in terms of goal contribution though:

In the league, however, the trend is clear - and quite surprising. Both his goal and assist contributions declined each season he spent with Wolverhampton Wanderers, with the 2019-20 campaign proving to be his least productive with regards to the average number of goals and assists provided per 90 minutes.

While he provided 0.42 goals every 90 minutes in the Championship over the 2017-18 season, in 2019-20, he only provided an average of 0.27 goals per game in the English Premier League.

His assist contribution was even more stark, with Jota chipping in with just 0.04 assists on average per 90 minutes of league football in his final season at Wolves - a clear reduction from the two seasons prior:

Jota had fallen down the pecking order towards the end of his time at Wolves

Ultimately, Diogo Jota also was not getting as much game time towards the end of his time at Wolves, both at the end of last season and at the beginning of this one.

In the chart below, we look at the number of minutes played for Wolverhampton Wanderers by each of the four players across the last 10 matches in which Diogo Jota was at the club compared to the 10 games prior to that.

As you can see, of the quartet, Diogo Jota was the player to represent Wolves the most in the 10 earlier matches, amassing 654 minutes of action, but in his final 10 games, he only earned 383 minutes of game time, less than that of Adama Traore and Daniel Podence.

Diogo Jota. Photo author: @cfcunofficial (Chelsea Debs) London. License link.